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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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