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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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