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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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