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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
Friday, 04 September 20
IN A DEEPENING DEBT HOLE OF $34 BILLION, INDONESIA’S PLN MUST STOP DIGGING - IEEFA
The utility has added IDR100 trillion in debt annually for the last five years
Utilities globally started changing the way they do business ye ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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