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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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