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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
Monday, 28 September 20
NEW LNG PROJECTS - ALL DRESSED UP AND NO PLACE TO GO - WOOD MACKENZIE
It was meant to be another boom year. After a record 70 mmtpa of new LNG capacity was sanctioned in 2019, at least as much capacity was lined up fo ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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