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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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