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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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