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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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