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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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