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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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