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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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