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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
SOUTHEAST ASIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND AFTER THE PANDEMIC-INDUCED HIATUS IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in Southeast Asia has more than doubled in the last decade, with the largest growth in Indonesia and Viet Nam, followed by Malaysi ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
COAL DEMAND IS RISING QUICKLY IN PAKISTAN AND MORE SLOWLY IN BANGLADESH - IEA
Pakistan had 150 MW of installed coal power capacity in 2015. Since 2017, in addition to a few small plants for industry, Pakistan has commissioned ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
AFRICA PERSPECTIVE INDICATES NO MAJOR SHIFTS FOR COAL CONSUMPTION - IEA
Overall countries on the African continent consumed 197 Mt of coal in 2019, 12 Mt less (-6%) than 2018.
South Africa, the continent& ...
Monday, 21 December 20
COAL PRICES WITHSTAND DESPITE COVID-19 AND CHINESE IMPORT QUOTAS - IEA
Coal prices vary by region as well as by grade and quality. The price rebound starting in 2016 ended in 2018, moving in a downward trend in 2019. A ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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