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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CORROSION-RESISTANT STEELS FOR CARGO OIL TANKS - DNV GL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Crude oil is a complex mixture of substances at varying ratios and in most cases contains at least some salt water. ...
Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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