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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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