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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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