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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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