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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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