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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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