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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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