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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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