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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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