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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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