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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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