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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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