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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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