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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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