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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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