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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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