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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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