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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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