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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 December 20
COAL'S PARTIAL RECOVERY IS SET TO FADE AFTER 2021 - IEA
Global coal consumption is estimated to have fallen by 7%, or over 500 million tonnes, between 2018 in 2020. A decline of this size over a two-year ...
Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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