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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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