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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 23 June 20
COVID-19 COULD CAUSE A BOOM IN COAL POWER - RYSTAD ENERGY | OILPRICE
COVID-19 has not only impacted the energy industry’s revenues but also its infrastructure development.
The delay of new natural gas ...
Tuesday, 23 June 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 0.9 PCT IN JANUARY-MAY: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 0.9 percent year on year to 1.47 billion tonnes in the first five months of this year, official data showed.
& ...
Monday, 22 June 20
KAMSARMAX TYPES REGULARLY HIT THE $9,000 PER DAY LEVEL FOR INDONESIAN COAL RUN TO CHINA, BALTIC BRIEFING SAYS
Capesize
The Capesize market trajectory this week has been one of the steepest rallies the sector has experienced. Opening at $12,410, the sect ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals im ...
Saturday, 20 June 20
NO ESCAPING GLOBAL TRADE SLUMP - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Those hoping for a decent recovery in trade in the second half of the year should prepare for disappointment.
New data from the Unit ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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