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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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