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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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