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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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