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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 20 July 20
OIL PRICE OF $40-43 PER BARREL MORE OR LESS BALANCED - NOVAK | TASS
The Russian Ministry of Energy considers the current oil price of $40-43 per barrel more or less balanced and does not expect price changes after t ...
Monday, 20 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 OPEN NORTH CHINA FIXING AN AUSTRALIAN ROUND IN THE LOW $10,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The capesize market showed some resistance this week to recent losses as all routes saw a small uptick in value to end the week. With ...
Friday, 17 July 20
MISC MALAYSIA ENTERS INTO PURCHASE AGREEMENTS AND TIME CHARTER PARTIES FOR SIX VLECS
MISC Berhad (MISC) has entered into Memorandum of Agreements (MOAs) with six indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of Zhejiang Satellite Petrochem ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
HOW MEANINGFUL ARE SOME ESTIMATES FOR INDIA’S COAL CONSUMPTION DATA? - IEEFA
In recent years, BP's estimates for India have contained what appears to be a record of over-optimistic projections
BP’s a ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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