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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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