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Monday, 03 August 20
LOW OIL PRICE AND CORONA VIRUS HIT SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA OIL PRODUCERS - FITCH RATINGS
 The collapse in oil prices and the coronavirus shock is worsening the fiscal and external balances of sub-Saharan African oil producers, Fitch Ratings says. While we expect most countries to be able to close their financing gap with the support of official creditors, liquidity pressures will remain high through the year. Export receipts will drop and external support inflows will be insufficient to stem the fall in international reserves.
Angola (B-/Stable), the Republic of Congo (CCC), Gabon (CCC), Nigeria (B/Negative) face a sharp deterioration of fiscal and external balances and increasing financing challenges due to the impact of the double shock of lower oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic, which underpinned recent downgrades. Fitch forecasts the Brent oil price at USD35/bbl in 2020 and USD45/bbl in 2021.
Sub-Saharan African oil producers entered 2020 with high debt levels and limited fiscal space. We expect them to post fiscal deficits between 4% and 6% of GDP in 2020. This assumes lower oil prices and a contraction of oil production due to maturing oil fields, low investment and OPEC+ quotas, along with a moderate impact of measures taken to stem the pandemic. Government debt will soar from already high levels and exceed 115% of GDP in Angola and Congo.
Government financing needs will rise. Shallow domestic markets in Angola, Gabon and Congo combined with weak public finance management for the latter two could put liquidity under stress and could threaten the timely repayment of debt. However, governments are making Eurobond payments a priority containing the risk of defaults.
We still expect Angola to be able to close its funding gap with financing from external official creditors in 2020 and by drawing on funds from the sovereign wealth fund, but risks are high. Congo is particularly exposed to liquidity risk given the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of the oil-traders' debt and its linkages with financing. While liquidity risks have risen in Gabon, debt sustainability could remain stronger than for 'CCC' peers in our baseline scenario. Nigeria's credit profile is more resilient as the sovereign is less vulnerable to short-term financing stress due to its deeper domestic debt market.
Angola, Congo, Gabon and Nigeria's current account deficits will not be fully covered by increased external borrowing, reducing external buffers. Congo and Gabon will face acute external liquidity strain, raising pressure on the CEMAC peg to the euro, although devaluation in the near term is not our base-case scenario. Angola will face continued pressure on its already severely devalued currency, increasing the burden of external debt service. Nigeria will contend with outflows of foreign portfolio investments, which could put pressure on the peg.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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