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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in the first quarter of 2020, down 6.8%year-on-year. The power sector’s coal consumption fell 6.8%year-on-yearto 507mt,while construction sector usage fell 24.7% year-on-year to 65mt. Although the coal market remains volatile, industry observers estimate an average decline of 8% to 12% year-on-year in China’s coal demand. IEEFA currently estimates a 10% year-on-year fall in China’s 2020 coal imports, based on the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: From January to April2020,imports rose 27%year-on-year, but we note this is a function of lower prices.
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Domestic coal production: After declining year-on-year in January and February, output in March and April rose 6.4%and 6.0%year-on-year, respectively.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation declined 8.2%year-on-yearin the first quarter but rose 1.5%year-on-yearin April.
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Steel output: This increased 1.3%year-on-yearfor the first four months of 2020.
A detailed examination of China’s data, together with press commentary on the Chinese Government’s policy on coal imports, reinforces our view that caution is merited. According to media reports, China’s coal imports grew 22% year-on-year in April, and January to April 2020 imports increased 27% year-on-year, but the growth was boosted by lower prices for coal imports from Indonesia and Australia. The average April Newcastle benchmark price of US$56.2/tonne is 35% lower year-on-year.
According to media reports, China’s coal production experienced year-on-year growth of 6.4% in March and 6.0% in April. This growth is unsurprising as the National Energy Administration announced that China’s production had reached 83.4% of total coal mining capacity as of 3 March. The COVID-19-related disruption to China’s domestic coal output appears limited to January–February2020,when output declined 4.8%year-on-year, which is bad news for coal exporters to China. Additionally, 12 Chinese coal companies have called for a 10% cut in output from current levels to support domestic prices. The year-on-year growth in China’s domestic coal production would also tie in with government policy to impose an import quota this year that is set at 2017 levels, which are 10% below 2019 levels.
From January to April 2020, total Chinese power output fell 4.7% year-on-year, while thermal power output fell 5.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output grew 2.0% year-on-year, and thermal power output was up 1.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2020, 87 % of China’s thermal power capacity was from coal-fired plants, with the remainder from gas-fired facilities, according to the China Electricity Council. We note that even with the slight uptick in thermal power output for April, it is too early to suggest a sustained recovery in coal usage and imports.
China’s steel output serves as an indicator of economic activity. It rose1.3%year-on-yearfor January to April2020, indicating some stability. According to Mysteel Global, blast furnace capacity utilization rates at 163 mills rose to 85.6%, the highest rate in nearly 11 months, as of 15 May. However, against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production, this level of economic activity would still present downside risks for Chinese coal imports.
The outlook on government policy remains negative for exports to China, thanks to the coal import quota that seeks to maintain 2020 coal imports at the 2017 level of 270mt compared with 300mt in 2019. However, according to media reports, Guangdong and Fujian provinces used up the quota in the first four months of 2020. One positive sign for Indonesia’s exporters is the suggestion in media reports that China may reduce coal imports from Australia from July because of political tensions. Meanwhile, China’s coal producers have also been calling for government help. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (the state-run representative body for domestic miners) has asked the National Development and Reform Commission to help restrict imports of cheap fuel. Additionally, 12Chinese coal producers have called for a 10% reduction in domestic coal output. Industry observers have estimated a year-on-year decline of 8–12%for China coal imports. This is in line with IEEFA’s conclusion that Chinese coal imports could decline 10%year-on-yearin 2020.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Friday, 19 June 20
INDIA'S COAL CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN 2019 SLOWEST SINCE 2001: BP STATS REVIEW - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Growth in global energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth, according to the bp Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Th ...
Friday, 19 June 20
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 1,050,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korera Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1,050k MT Min.5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for t ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: GOVT'S PLAN TO CUT COAL IMPORT GOES FOR A TOSS AS FY20 BREAKS LOGISTICS CHAIN; LOCAL OUTPUT STAGNANT - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Weak logistics support and disrupted supply chain towards the end of the last financial year 2019-20 hit the government’s plan to cut coal im ...
Thursday, 18 June 20
INDIA: THERMAL PLANTS TO OPERATE BELOW 53% CAPACITY IN FY21 AS POWER DEMAND DIPS - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Plant Load Factor (PLF) of thermal power stations across the country is projected to dip below 53 per cent in this fiscal. Muted power demand f ...
Wednesday, 17 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After experiencing record earnings during the first half of the year, the focus of headlines concerning the tanker market has shifted from the deve ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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