We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in the first quarter of 2020, down 6.8%year-on-year. The power sector’s coal consumption fell 6.8%year-on-yearto 507mt,while construction sector usage fell 24.7% year-on-year to 65mt. Although the coal market remains volatile, industry observers estimate an average decline of 8% to 12% year-on-year in China’s coal demand. IEEFA currently estimates a 10% year-on-year fall in China’s 2020 coal imports, based on the following four key variables:
-
Coal imports: From January to April2020,imports rose 27%year-on-year, but we note this is a function of lower prices.
-
Domestic coal production: After declining year-on-year in January and February, output in March and April rose 6.4%and 6.0%year-on-year, respectively.
-
Power generation: Thermal power generation declined 8.2%year-on-yearin the first quarter but rose 1.5%year-on-yearin April.
-
Steel output: This increased 1.3%year-on-yearfor the first four months of 2020.
A detailed examination of China’s data, together with press commentary on the Chinese Government’s policy on coal imports, reinforces our view that caution is merited. According to media reports, China’s coal imports grew 22% year-on-year in April, and January to April 2020 imports increased 27% year-on-year, but the growth was boosted by lower prices for coal imports from Indonesia and Australia. The average April Newcastle benchmark price of US$56.2/tonne is 35% lower year-on-year.
According to media reports, China’s coal production experienced year-on-year growth of 6.4% in March and 6.0% in April. This growth is unsurprising as the National Energy Administration announced that China’s production had reached 83.4% of total coal mining capacity as of 3 March. The COVID-19-related disruption to China’s domestic coal output appears limited to January–February2020,when output declined 4.8%year-on-year, which is bad news for coal exporters to China. Additionally, 12 Chinese coal companies have called for a 10% cut in output from current levels to support domestic prices. The year-on-year growth in China’s domestic coal production would also tie in with government policy to impose an import quota this year that is set at 2017 levels, which are 10% below 2019 levels.
From January to April 2020, total Chinese power output fell 4.7% year-on-year, while thermal power output fell 5.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output grew 2.0% year-on-year, and thermal power output was up 1.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2020, 87 % of China’s thermal power capacity was from coal-fired plants, with the remainder from gas-fired facilities, according to the China Electricity Council. We note that even with the slight uptick in thermal power output for April, it is too early to suggest a sustained recovery in coal usage and imports.
China’s steel output serves as an indicator of economic activity. It rose1.3%year-on-yearfor January to April2020, indicating some stability. According to Mysteel Global, blast furnace capacity utilization rates at 163 mills rose to 85.6%, the highest rate in nearly 11 months, as of 15 May. However, against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production, this level of economic activity would still present downside risks for Chinese coal imports.
The outlook on government policy remains negative for exports to China, thanks to the coal import quota that seeks to maintain 2020 coal imports at the 2017 level of 270mt compared with 300mt in 2019. However, according to media reports, Guangdong and Fujian provinces used up the quota in the first four months of 2020. One positive sign for Indonesia’s exporters is the suggestion in media reports that China may reduce coal imports from Australia from July because of political tensions. Meanwhile, China’s coal producers have also been calling for government help. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (the state-run representative body for domestic miners) has asked the National Development and Reform Commission to help restrict imports of cheap fuel. Additionally, 12Chinese coal producers have called for a 10% reduction in domestic coal output. Industry observers have estimated a year-on-year decline of 8–12%for China coal imports. This is in line with IEEFA’s conclusion that Chinese coal imports could decline 10%year-on-yearin 2020.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
|
|
|
Showing 891 to 895 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
.png)
.png)
(1).png)
(1).png)
