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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in the first quarter of 2020, down 6.8%year-on-year. The power sector’s coal consumption fell 6.8%year-on-yearto 507mt,while construction sector usage fell 24.7% year-on-year to 65mt. Although the coal market remains volatile, industry observers estimate an average decline of 8% to 12% year-on-year in China’s coal demand. IEEFA currently estimates a 10% year-on-year fall in China’s 2020 coal imports, based on the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: From January to April2020,imports rose 27%year-on-year, but we note this is a function of lower prices.
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Domestic coal production: After declining year-on-year in January and February, output in March and April rose 6.4%and 6.0%year-on-year, respectively.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation declined 8.2%year-on-yearin the first quarter but rose 1.5%year-on-yearin April.
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Steel output: This increased 1.3%year-on-yearfor the first four months of 2020.
A detailed examination of China’s data, together with press commentary on the Chinese Government’s policy on coal imports, reinforces our view that caution is merited. According to media reports, China’s coal imports grew 22% year-on-year in April, and January to April 2020 imports increased 27% year-on-year, but the growth was boosted by lower prices for coal imports from Indonesia and Australia. The average April Newcastle benchmark price of US$56.2/tonne is 35% lower year-on-year.
According to media reports, China’s coal production experienced year-on-year growth of 6.4% in March and 6.0% in April. This growth is unsurprising as the National Energy Administration announced that China’s production had reached 83.4% of total coal mining capacity as of 3 March. The COVID-19-related disruption to China’s domestic coal output appears limited to January–February2020,when output declined 4.8%year-on-year, which is bad news for coal exporters to China. Additionally, 12 Chinese coal companies have called for a 10% cut in output from current levels to support domestic prices. The year-on-year growth in China’s domestic coal production would also tie in with government policy to impose an import quota this year that is set at 2017 levels, which are 10% below 2019 levels.
From January to April 2020, total Chinese power output fell 4.7% year-on-year, while thermal power output fell 5.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output grew 2.0% year-on-year, and thermal power output was up 1.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2020, 87 % of China’s thermal power capacity was from coal-fired plants, with the remainder from gas-fired facilities, according to the China Electricity Council. We note that even with the slight uptick in thermal power output for April, it is too early to suggest a sustained recovery in coal usage and imports.
China’s steel output serves as an indicator of economic activity. It rose1.3%year-on-yearfor January to April2020, indicating some stability. According to Mysteel Global, blast furnace capacity utilization rates at 163 mills rose to 85.6%, the highest rate in nearly 11 months, as of 15 May. However, against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production, this level of economic activity would still present downside risks for Chinese coal imports.
The outlook on government policy remains negative for exports to China, thanks to the coal import quota that seeks to maintain 2020 coal imports at the 2017 level of 270mt compared with 300mt in 2019. However, according to media reports, Guangdong and Fujian provinces used up the quota in the first four months of 2020. One positive sign for Indonesia’s exporters is the suggestion in media reports that China may reduce coal imports from Australia from July because of political tensions. Meanwhile, China’s coal producers have also been calling for government help. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (the state-run representative body for domestic miners) has asked the National Development and Reform Commission to help restrict imports of cheap fuel. Additionally, 12Chinese coal producers have called for a 10% reduction in domestic coal output. Industry observers have estimated a year-on-year decline of 8–12%for China coal imports. This is in line with IEEFA’s conclusion that Chinese coal imports could decline 10%year-on-yearin 2020.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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