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Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
 China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in the first quarter of 2020, down 6.8%year-on-year. The power sector’s coal consumption fell 6.8%year-on-yearto 507mt,while construction sector usage fell 24.7% year-on-year to 65mt. Although the coal market remains volatile, industry observers estimate an average decline of 8% to 12% year-on-year in China’s coal demand. IEEFA currently estimates a 10% year-on-year fall in China’s 2020 coal imports, based on the following four key variables:
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Coal imports: From January to April2020,imports rose 27%year-on-year, but we note this is a function of lower prices.
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Domestic coal production: After declining year-on-year in January and February, output in March and April rose 6.4%and 6.0%year-on-year, respectively.
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Power generation: Thermal power generation declined 8.2%year-on-yearin the first quarter but rose 1.5%year-on-yearin April.
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Steel output: This increased 1.3%year-on-yearfor the first four months of 2020.
A detailed examination of China’s data, together with press commentary on the Chinese Government’s policy on coal imports, reinforces our view that caution is merited. According to media reports, China’s coal imports grew 22% year-on-year in April, and January to April 2020 imports increased 27% year-on-year, but the growth was boosted by lower prices for coal imports from Indonesia and Australia. The average April Newcastle benchmark price of US$56.2/tonne is 35% lower year-on-year.
According to media reports, China’s coal production experienced year-on-year growth of 6.4% in March and 6.0% in April. This growth is unsurprising as the National Energy Administration announced that China’s production had reached 83.4% of total coal mining capacity as of 3 March. The COVID-19-related disruption to China’s domestic coal output appears limited to January–February2020,when output declined 4.8%year-on-year, which is bad news for coal exporters to China. Additionally, 12 Chinese coal companies have called for a 10% cut in output from current levels to support domestic prices. The year-on-year growth in China’s domestic coal production would also tie in with government policy to impose an import quota this year that is set at 2017 levels, which are 10% below 2019 levels.
From January to April 2020, total Chinese power output fell 4.7% year-on-year, while thermal power output fell 5.9% year-on-year. In April, total power output grew 2.0% year-on-year, and thermal power output was up 1.5% year-on-year. From January to April 2020, 87 % of China’s thermal power capacity was from coal-fired plants, with the remainder from gas-fired facilities, according to the China Electricity Council. We note that even with the slight uptick in thermal power output for April, it is too early to suggest a sustained recovery in coal usage and imports.
China’s steel output serves as an indicator of economic activity. It rose1.3%year-on-yearfor January to April2020, indicating some stability. According to Mysteel Global, blast furnace capacity utilization rates at 163 mills rose to 85.6%, the highest rate in nearly 11 months, as of 15 May. However, against the backdrop of an increase in domestic coal production, this level of economic activity would still present downside risks for Chinese coal imports.
The outlook on government policy remains negative for exports to China, thanks to the coal import quota that seeks to maintain 2020 coal imports at the 2017 level of 270mt compared with 300mt in 2019. However, according to media reports, Guangdong and Fujian provinces used up the quota in the first four months of 2020. One positive sign for Indonesia’s exporters is the suggestion in media reports that China may reduce coal imports from Australia from July because of political tensions. Meanwhile, China’s coal producers have also been calling for government help. The China Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (the state-run representative body for domestic miners) has asked the National Development and Reform Commission to help restrict imports of cheap fuel. Additionally, 12Chinese coal producers have called for a 10% reduction in domestic coal output. Industry observers have estimated a year-on-year decline of 8–12%for China coal imports. This is in line with IEEFA’s conclusion that Chinese coal imports could decline 10%year-on-yearin 2020.
About IEEFA
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) examines issues related to energy markets, trends and policies. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy. www.ieefa.org
About the Author Ghee Peh
Financial Analyst
Ghee Peh has worked in investment research since 1995, including at Jefferies, BNP Paribas, and UBS. He has covered Asian coal, cement and metal companies.
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Sunday, 14 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL WAS STILL IN DEMAND; A 52,000-DWT SUPRAMAX FIXING DELIVERY CJK FOR A ROUND VOYAGE VIA INDONESIA AT $6,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
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Friday, 12 June 20
CHINA CURBS COAL IMPORTS AFTER 5 MONTHS OF RECORD INFLOWS - SOURCES: REUTERS
China has stepped up customs checks for coal imports, leading to lengthy processing delays at ports, four sources familiar with the matter said, as ...
Friday, 12 June 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED SET FOR MARKETING DRIVE TO CREATE DEMAND - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
State-run miner Coal India (CIL), which is primarily focused on supplying coal to the power sector, is now reorienting its marketing to create dema ...
Friday, 12 June 20
MOODY'S REVISES BRENT OIL PRICE OUTLOOK TO $35/BARREL IN 2020 - TASS
Low oil prices are likely to exert the highest pressure on Iraq, Oman and Kuwait due to the limited space for the fiscal policy pursuit and higher ...
Thursday, 11 June 20
JAN-MAY, INDONESIA SHIPPED 175.15 MILLION TONS OF COAL TO ITS OVERSEAS BUYERS
Indonesia's coal production for the first 5 months of this year have reached 228 million tons. January – May 2020, Indonesia shipped US$ ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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