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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
Friday, 10 April 20
INDIA'S BULKS SUPPLY CHAIN TAKES A HIT DURING LOCKDOWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Businesses are shut, and the supply chain is ...
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Showing 1016 to 1020 news of total 6871 |
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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