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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 09 April 20
SUSPENSION OF WRONGFUL TRADING IN LIGHT OF COVID 19 - WF&W
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
DIRECTORS’ PERSONAL LIABILITY FOR WRONGFUL TRADING – RELIEF DURING THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS
As the UK&rsquo ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
LESSONS LEARNED FROM SCRUBBER INSTALLATION AND OPERATION - ABS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
At the beginning of this year, the IMO’s global sulfur cap on marine fuels entered into force and shipowners who ch ...
Wednesday, 08 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With lockdown measures around the globe tightening during the last weeks of Q1, there is finally a feeling that most countries are slowly but stead ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
With the first quarter of 2020 now firmly written in the books, it is worth examining what we have witnessed so far in the tanker market. Undoubted ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
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Showing 1021 to 1025 news of total 6871 |
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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