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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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Showing 1026 to 1030 news of total 6871 |
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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