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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
 Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value plummeted by $16.26, or 48.0%, m-o-m, to $17.66/b, the lowest monthly level since December 2001. With regard to crude futures, ICE Brent declined by $7.10, or 21%, to average $26.63/b, while NYMEX WTI fell by $13.75, or 45.2%, to average $16.70/b. The contango structure of the forward curves of all crude futures benchmarks steepened further, on further worsening of global oil market fundamentals and a rapid increase in global oil inventories. Money managers firmly raised their combined futures and options net long positions in April in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economy is forecast to face a recession in 2020, declining by 3.4%, following global economic growth of 2.9% in the previous year. Within the OECD, the US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline is expected in the Euro-zone, where economic activity is forecast to fall by 8.0% in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, recovering from a sharp contraction in 1Q20, and following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India is forecast to decline by 0.2%, a sharp slowdown from already weakening growth of 5.3% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept broadly unchanged compared to last month’s assessment, estimated to have grown by 0.83 mb/d, y-o-y, to average 98.72 mb/d. In 2020, world oil demand growth is adjusted lower by 2.23 mb/d and is now forecast to drop by 9.07 mb/d. However, the worst contraction in major oil demand centers around the world is expected to take place in the 2Q20, mostly in OECD Americas and Europe, with transportation and industrial fuels affected the most. As such, OECD oil demand is now revised lower by 1.20 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand growth was adjusted down by 1.03 mb/d, for total oil demand to reach 90.59 mb/d. Indeed, demand contraction in 2020 can be mitigated with sooner than expected easing of government COVID-19 related measures, and faster response of economic growth to the implemented extraordinary stimulus packages.
World Oil Supply
The non-OPEC oil supply growth estimate in 2019 is now revised up slightly by 0.04 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment, due to an upward revision in Australia’s production data, and is estimated to have grown by 2.02 mb/d. For 2020, non-OPEC oil supply is revised down further by almost 2.0 mb/d from the previous projection, and is now forecast to decline by 3.5 mb/d. The main revisions of the month are based on production shut-ins or curtailment plans announced by oil companies – including the majors – particularly in North America. Globally, not including the countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) and as of 6 May 2020, around 3.6 mb/d of production cuts have been announced, so far, in response to the lack of demand, low oil prices, excess supply and limited storage capacity. The 2020 oil supply growth forecast for the US is revised down by 1.3 mb/d to now show a decline of 1.4 mb/d y-o-y. Other large downward revisions are undertaken for Canada and Brazil by 0.3 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d, respectively. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. OPEC NGLs production in 2019 is estimated to have grown by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.79 mb/d and for 2020 is forecast to grow by 0.04 mb/d to average 4.83 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production increased by 1.80 mb/d m-o-m to average 30.41 mb/d, according to secondary sources
Product Markets and Refining
Operations Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin rebounded in April. Deeper refinery intake cuts as well as low feedstock prices helped offset weak demand. In addition, the relaxation of confinement measures in the US and Europe amid the onset of the driving season, provided much-needed stimulus to the top of the barrel. In Asia, however, stronger product availability, as refineries increased processing rates, outpaced product inventory drawdowns amid a lack of demand from overseas, weighed on the regional product market.
Tanker Market
April was a stellar month for the tanker market with both dirty and clean rates seeing spikes during the month. Dirty freight rates peaked early in April and then trended lower, although remaining at relatively high levels. Rates were supported by a surge in tanker demand, driven by low crude prices and a need to push out excess supplies amid concerns about the availability of onshore storage capacity. Meanwhile, clean tanker rates jumped to historic highs in the middle of April, as refiners and traders looked to boosting product exports and turned to floating storage. However, rates returned to more typical levels by the end of the month. The expected voluntary and involuntary production reductions are expected to weigh on tanker demand in the coming months, although increased floating storage will provided offsetting support.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
According to preliminary data, US crude imports in April fell to 5.4 mb/d – the lowest since 1992 – while the country’s crude exports averaged 3.2 mb/d, down from a peak of 3.7 mb/d in February 2020. In March, China’s crude imports averaged 9.7 mb/d, falling below 10 mb/d for the first time in eight months. Product exports from China surged to 1.85 mb/d, the second highest level on record, led by a jump in diesel exports. India’s crude imports dipped in March to average 4.6 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown which began toward the end of the month. India’s product exports rose 10% m-o-m, supported by an increase in diesel exports. Crude imports into Japan increased for the first time in two months, averaging 3.1 mb/d in March, while product imports and exports were slightly lower. The latest official data for OECD Europe shows crude exports continuing to fall in January, reaching 2.2 mb/d.
Commercial Stock Movements
OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 57.7 mb m-o-m in March to stand at 3,002 mb. This was 125.8 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 88.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks surged by 49.1 mb, while product stocks rose by 8.6 mb, m-o-m. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks surged by 8.9 days m-o-m in March to stand at 86.1 days. This was 25.1 days above March 2019, and 23.8 days above the latest five-year average. Preliminary data for April showed that US total commercial oil stocks surged by 81.1 mb m-o-m to stand at 1,395 mb. This was 136.1 mb, or 10.8%, above the same period a year ago, and 123.7 mb, or 9.7%, higher than the latest five-year average. Within components, crude stocks climbed by 47.9 mb, and product stocks rose by 33.2 mb m-o-m in April. Balance of
Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 stood at 29.8 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. For 2020, and following the recent agreement reached at the extraordinary OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meetings in April, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 24.3 mb/d, which is 5.6 mb/d lower than the 2019 level. It is worth noting that demand for OPEC crude in 2020 remained almost the same as last month’s assessment, both considering the voluntary adjustment volumes under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) framework. However, additional reductions recently announced by several OPEC member countries, above and beyond their voluntary commitments under DoC, are expected to expedite market re-balancing, and improve the demand for OPEC crude in 2020.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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