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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Friday, 18 September 20
INDIA'S COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT PICKS UP AS INDUSTRIAL USE RISES - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired electricity generation rose 9.4% in the first half of September, provisional government data showed, as demand from indust ...
Friday, 18 September 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 17 September 20
LAST HOPES FOR DEMAND GROWTH SET TO DISAPPOINT THERMAL COAL EXPORTERS - IEEFA
Asian thermal coal exporters are fighting an uphill battle even in new markets
The world’s largest thermal coal exporter is eyeing new m ...
Wednesday, 16 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Another active week in terms of SnP has concluded in the dry bulk market with a diversified array of transactions recorded. Despite the correction ...
Friday, 11 September 20
IMO 2020: A REVIEW OF THE TRANSITION TO VLSFOS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Many predictions were made in the run up to the imposition of the MARPOL 2020 sulphur cap, none of which was that the tra ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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