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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 09 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The uneventful summer lull which is coming to an end soon has left its stigma on the newbuilding market, which has already been devastated by the g ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
INDIA WON'T KICK ITS COAL HABIT SO EASILY - HINDU BUSINESS LINE
India has traditionally considered itself lucky to have been endowed with abundant coal reserves, which it has sought to use to meet its energy nee ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
FINANCING COMPLETE FOR 900MW FIFTH PHASE OF MASSIVE DUBAI SOLAR PARK: ARABIAN BUSINESS
Saudi-based ACWA Power on Thursday announced it has completed the signing of all financing agreements for the fifth phase of the Mohammed bin Rashi ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
POLISH COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO FALL BY 7 MLN TONNES NEXT YEAR: MINISTER - REUTERS
Poland’s demand for coal is expected to fall by around 7 million tonnes next year, or more than 10% of annual hard coal production, after a d ...
Saturday, 05 September 20
PAKISTAN'S NEW 27-YEAR POWER PLAN RISKS LOCKING IN LONG-TERM OVERCAPACITY, LEAVING IMPORTED COAL AND LNG PLANTS STRANDED - IEEFA
Wind and solar, the country’s cheapest source of new generation, also overlooked
Pakistan risks locking itself into building m ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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