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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Thursday, 10 September 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2020 TO BE 511 MMST, 28 PER CENT LOWER THAN IN 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 511 million short tons (MMst), 194 MMst (28%) lower than in 2019. Mitigation efforts related t ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA'S DEMAND KEEPING THE DRY BULK MARKET GOING - PETER SAND | BIMCO
Overview
An impressive recovery in Chinese dry bulk imports has protected the industry from the effects of falling demand in the rest of the wo ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
TANKER SHIPPING: FREIGHT RATES BACK AT LOSS-MAKING LEVELS AFTER 12 VERY PROFITABLE MONTHS - BIMCO
Overview
A stunningly strong 12 months for the tanker shipping industry is now being replaced by lower freight rates, as lower oil product ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS STUMBLE IN AUGUST, RAISING RISK OF SLOW RECOVERY - REFINITIV | BANCHERO COSTA
After posting a mild recovery in July, India's coal imports have stumbled in August as the South Asian nation battles to restart it ...
Thursday, 10 September 20
THE FIRST 8 MONTHS OF 2020, INDONESIA EXPORTED 217.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL BASED ON REFINITIV - BANCHERO COSTA
The coal market has been hit by a weaker global economy as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and falling industrial electricity demand ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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