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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the p ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.73 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 125.91 points Monday, up 0.73 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Here we are, just a short breath before the final quarter of the year, and many are now debating to what extent we can really expect a firm dry bul ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES' EARNINGS TO WEAKEN IN 2H20 - FITCH RATINGS
Rated Indonesian coal miners and contractors will have weaker operating and financial performances in the second half of 2020 than in the first, sa ...
Tuesday, 29 September 20
RUSSIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO DROP BY 10.5% IN 2020, SAYS MINISTRY - TASS
Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects a 10.5% decrease in coal production in the country in 2020 compared with last year to 395 mln ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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