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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RALLY ON REPORTED BAN ON AUSTRALIA CARGOES - REUTERS
Dalian coking coal futures rallied for a sixth straight session on Tuesday after reports surfaced that China had stopped buying coal from Australia ...
Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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