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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The challenges brought forward in 2020 proved to be very different from what we could have ever imagined. Together with placing a significant strai ...
Tuesday, 06 October 20
KOSPO TO IMPORT 80,000 MT OF 3,800 NCV COAL FOR 2H NOV
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 MT Min.3800 kcal/kg NCV coal 2H November, 2020 l ...
Friday, 02 October 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISE AFTER HISTORIC CRASH TO US$ 49.42
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference for the month of October Rise to US$ 51.00 after historic crash to US$ 49.42 in September 2020.
...
Friday, 02 October 20
SRI LANKA MUST LEARN LESSONS FROM AROUND ASIA TO AVOID FURTHER ELECTRICITY CRISES - IEEFA
Overcommitment to fossil-fuelled power generation is leading to excess capacity and rising capacity payments, subsidies, and tariffs around the con ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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