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Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
 LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory levels of natural gas and LNG in several of the largest end markets for LNG and the outbreak of COVID-19, the impact of which has had an uneven distribution around the world during the year to date. For example, Chinese demand was 15 million tonnes (“mt”) in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease of 5% over the first quarter of 2019, according to Poten, but apparent demand in April has increased year-on-year based on vessel tracking data, including several cargoes exported from the U.S., GasLog says in its latest financial report.
Gaslog further noted, meanwhile, demand from Northern Asia more broadly (Japan, China, South Korea and Taiwan) grew by approximately 1 mt in the first quarter or 3% year-over-year. In addition, demand from India grew by nearly 2 mt in the first quarter of 2020 (or 37%) as the country looked to take advantage of historically low gas prices, although apparent demand in April is likely to be lower year-on-year based on vessel tracking data. Finally, demand from Europe grew by over 4 mt (or 37%) as gas pricing favored coal-to-gas switching for power generation and LNG replaces indigenous gas production. In total, LNG demand was 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, compared to 89 mt in the first quarter of 2019, or an increase of 10%.
Wood Mackenzie currently expects global LNG demand to grow 21 mt or 6% this year, slower than the 26 mt or 7% it anticipated earlier this year prior to the global outbreak of COVID-19. Nonetheless, the demand for LNG over the near-term continues to be uncertain as many LNG importing countries either continue to have in effect shelter-in-place orders which prevent the operation of businesses deemed to be “non-essential” or are in the early stages of reopening their economies. Consequently, measures of global economic activity have declined significantly from comparable periods in 2019. However, the longer-term outlook for LNG demand remains favorable with demand growth of 92 mt estimated over the 2019-2025 timeframe, or compound annual growth of approximately 4%, according to Wood Mackenzie.
According to GasLog's latest financial report, global LNG supply was approximately 98 mt in the first quarter of 2020, an increase of 10 mt over the first quarter of 2019 (or 11%), primarily due to new supply additions in the U.S. (Cameron T1 and T2, Freeport T1, T2 and T3 and Elba Island), according to estimates from Wood Mackenzie. LNG supply is estimated to grow by 22 mt this year as the third train of Cameron begins operations and recent capacity additions continue to increase production. Further ahead, approximately 97 mt of new LNG capacity is expected to begin production during 2021-2025. However, Wood Mackenzie expects the pace of new project sanctions to slow significantly in 2020 due to the uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 outbreak in long-term demand for LNG and low global energy prices, in particular crude oil prices due to oversupply following a collapse in oil demand due to the COVID-19 virus.
In the LNG shipping spot market, tri-fuel diesel electric vessel (“TFDE”) headline rates, as reported by Clarksons, averaged $57,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the averages of $108,000 in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $59,500 in the first quarter of 2019. Headline spot rates for steam turbine propulsion (“Steam”) vessels averaged $40,000 per day in the first quarter of 2020, a decrease from the average of $78,000 per day in the fourth quarter of 2019 but approximately in line with the $39,000 per day observed in the first quarter of 2019. Slower than expected LNG demand growth due in part to the impact of COVID-19 (as detailed above), high global inventories of natural gas and LNG following a warmer than average winter in the Northern Hemisphere and limited opportunities for LNG arbitrage trading between Atlantic and Pacific basins impacted headline spot rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Clarksons currently assesses headline spot rates for TFDE and Steam LNG carriers at $32,500 per day and $23,000 per day, respectively. The COVID-19 outbreak has introduced significant uncertainty regarding demand for LNG, and consequently, demand for LNG shipping over the near term. The combined impact of the COVID-19 outbreak and normal seasonality may lead to greater volatility in spot rates and to lower utilization of vessels trading in the spot and short-term markets, in particular Steam vessels. In addition, global gas prices and gas price differentials remain near historic lows in the key markets of North Asia and Europe, limiting the opportunities for inter-basin arbitrage trading and likely reducing average voyage distances as well as potentially reducing global output of LNG over the near-term, particularly in the U.S., where a number of cargo deferrals and/or cancellations have been reported for this summer, said GasLog.
As of May 5, 2020, the orderbook totals 118 dedicated LNG carriers (>100,000 cbm), according to estimates from Poten, representing 22% of the on-the-water fleet. Of these, 74 vessels (or 63%) have multi-year charters. The pace of newbuild ordering has slowed significantly relative to 2018-19, with only 4 newbuildings ordered so far in 2020 and all of them ordered against multi-year contracts, an encouraging development for the future supply and demand balance of LNG carriers.
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Tuesday, 27 October 20
PLN STILL REFUSING TO ADAPT, A MOVE WHICH WILL HURT INVESTORS, CONSUMERS, AND THE GOVERNMENT PURSE - IEEFA
Utility’s latest planning report locks PLN into the past
PLN would be better served restructuring its business to address the current en ...
Monday, 26 October 20
'LONG ASCENT' TO RECOVERY OF GLOBAL GROWTH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global economy has so far avoided a “financial catastrophe” but growth projections from the International Monetary Fund’s lat ...
Friday, 23 October 20
SHIPPING LOANS AND COLLATERAL DAMAGE - VICTOR ONYEGBADO, AKABOGU & ASSOCIATES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Shipping finance transactions are characterised by peculiar risk factors principally on account of the shipping asset&rsq ...
Friday, 23 October 20
WHAT WILL THE 2020 ELECTIONS MEAN FOR US ENERGY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The 2020 elections present American voters with a choice between two radically different visions for the future of energy. President Donald Trump r ...
Wednesday, 21 October 20
BRAZIL EXPORTED 238.7 MLN TONNES OF IRON ORE IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil’s iron ore exports have been gradually but steadily recovering following a disastrous winter period of 2019/2020. In the first 9 month ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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